Forecasts – check our current forecasts

We are currently forecasting the results of the general elections in Spain of July 23. You can check our forecasts for Spain on the site of elPeriodico.   

We will soon be generating live forecasts of the 2023 Swiss elections. We will show two types of forecasts: 1) The forecasts for the lower chamber (Nationalrat) will show point estimates with 80% confidence intervals over time. Point estimates and confidence invervals are derived from interpollating the probability forecasts for different ranges of vote shares by parties that are traded on the market. 2) The forecasts for the upper chamber (Ständerat) will show probabilities of different (combinations) of candidates being elected in the Cantons.

With the partner project PREMIA, we are currently generating live forecasts for geopolitical events. The current predictions have been made by more than 350 participants since January 11, 2023. the graphs show daily updates of the predicitons over time. The vertial axis indicates the probability that a certain scenario will occur. The horizontal axis describes the time dimension, with each data point showing the average price during one day.