Cases – These are our past projects
WATSON
With the news platform Watson we covered the Swiss national elections of 2023. We forecasted vote shares in the Lower House (Nationalrat), all races for the Upper House (Ständerat), and the election of the federal councillors. Our forecasts were not only very accurate, but also told interesting stories about the parties and candidates.
EL PERIÓDICO
We are forecasting Spanish elections for elPeriódico since 2021. In particular, we have covered the regional elections of Madrid in 2021 and of Castilla y Léon of 2022. Our forecasts have been highly accurate and attracted a lot of attention. Also, Alberto has analyzed the electoral campaign based on our forecasts in a number of articles. Currently, we are running the prediction market for the regional elections in May.
AGENDA PUBLICA EL PAIS
We have forecasted the Spanish 2019 general elections and US presidential elections in 2020 for Agenda Pública (El País). Especially our forecast for the US elections have been highly accurate. Furthermore, based on our forecasts Alberto has commented on the elections in podcasts.
50 PLUS 1
We have forecasted more than 100 direct democratic votes in Switzerland. Oliver has started to forecast direct democratic votes in Switzerland in 2011. He publishes the forecasts live on his blog 50plus1 that is well known among political pundits in Switzerland. Between 2016 and 2022 the forecasts were conducted in the context of his project “The Effect of Campaign Events on Direct Democratic Decisions: Evidence from Forecast Markets” (funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation). Currently, the forecasts are conducted as part of the project “A Prediction Market with Integrated Algorithms (PREMIA)” (funded by the Digital Society Initiative of the University of Zurich).
TAGES ANZEIGER
We have forecasted the regional elections of the Canton of Zurich in 2015. At the time Oliver was one of the co-owners of Principe Consulting GmbH, with which he conducted forecasts for the regional elections for Tagesanzeiger. More than 1500 subscribers of the newspaper participated on the prediction market.